基于模糊概率方法的软土隧道结构性态风险评估

The Synthetical Risk Evaluation of Soft Soil Tunnel Structural Performance Based on Fuzzy Probability Method

利用模糊数学中的模糊概率理论,建立了软土隧道结构性态的模糊概率综合评估模型。模型应用模糊权重的概念,充分考虑了权重的模糊性以避免权重取值的不确定性。结合影响软土隧道结构性态的主要因素,选取渗漏水范围、横向水平位移、隧道断面收敛位移和钢筋泄露电流密度为主要评估影响因子,同时将隧道结构性态风险等级划分为优秀、良好、一般和较差4个等级,进而使评估结果更为精细。算例分析表明了文中方法对软土隧道结构性态风险评估的合理性和有效性。

According to the fuzzy probability theory in fuzzy mathematics, a synthetical fuzzy probability evalua- tion model of soft soil tunnel structural performance is presented. In this model, the fuzzy weighted value is suggested to avoid the uncertainties while determining the weight factor. Combined with the main influence factors of the soft soil tunnel structural performance, the following factors such as leakage range, transverse horizontal displacement, tunnel sectional convergence displacement and reinforcement corrosion current density are selected as the evaluating indices; and tunnel structural performance risk grades are classified as excellent, good, general and poor, so the evaluation re- suits can be more precise. The rationality and effectiveness of the method proposed is demonstrated through the exam- ple analysis of soft soil tunnel structure performance risk evaluation.