基于气候变化和人类活动影响的土地利用分析——以新疆阿克苏河流域绿洲为例

A Land Use Analysis Based on the Influences of Climate Change and Human Activities ——A Case Study in the Aksu River Basin Oasis

以1990、2000、2010年3期Landsat TM影像为土地利用基础数据,结合1990年以来的社会经济资料和反映气候变化的气温、降水数据,对1990年以来阿克苏河流域绿洲土地利用变化进行了分析.结果表明:1990-2010年期间,耕地、建设用地以单向转入为主,耕地对绿洲"扩张"贡献最大,前期(1990-2000年)的贡献率为129.1%,后期(2001-2010年)的贡献率提高到142.5%;草地、水域以单向转出为主,草地对绿洲"萎缩"贡献最大,前期的贡献率是-39.8%,后期是-34.8%;其次是水域,前期对绿洲的贡献率是-1%,后期是-9.3%;河漫滩、林地、湿地在前期对绿洲的"扩张"贡献率分别是7.5%、0.3%和5.1%,后期对绿洲的"萎缩"贡献率分别是-2.4%、-0.02%和-0.4%.近20a来流域绿洲规模整体上持续扩张.通过分析绿洲土地利用驱动力系统可以看出,绿洲土地利用类型变化主要受人类活动影响,气候变化起基础性作用.

In this paper,Landsat TM remote images of 1990,2000 and 2010 are taken as land use data in the Aksu River basin oasis,together with social economic data and measured data of air temperature and precipitation,to study the land use change in the Aksu River basin oasis from 1990 to 2010.It is found that from 1990 to 2010,cropland and construction-land had shifted in mainly,when the cropland expansion was the main of basin oasis expansion,with the contribution rate of 129.1% in the former stage was（1990-2000）,and then increasing to 142.5% in the latter stage（2000-2010）;grassland and water area had shifted out mainly,when the basin oasis shrinkage was due to grass land shrinkage mainly,with the contribution rate of-39.8% in the former stage,and then decreasing to-34.8% in the latter stage;and secondly the basin oasis shrinkage was due to water area shrinkage,with the contribution rate of-1% in the former stage,and then increasing to-9.3% in the latter stage;the contribution rates to the basin oasis expansion of floodplain,forest and wetland were 7.5%,0.3%,5.1% in the former stage,and-2.4%,-0.02% and-0.4% in the latter stage;Now the Aksu River basin oasis is expanding on the whole under the comprehensive effect of the above land use types.It is demonstrated that the land use change in the Aksu River basin oasis is mainly controlled by human activities,and the impact of climate change is basic and indirect.