基于改进IPAT模型的中国未来碳排放预测

Forecast of China's carbon emissions based on modified IPAT model

在"碳排放量与能源消费成正比"假设的基础上,对中国1987—2010年的历年碳排放量和人均碳排放量进行了分区域研究与计算.经数据分析,发现以2002年为界线,前后两个时期中国碳排放变化缺乏内在的连贯性,2002年以前的碳排放曲线无法表征未来年份碳排放趋势.在此发现的基础上,以2002—2010年碳排放数据为基础,引入表征科技进步的变量,对IPAT模型进行改进,进而对2010—2050年中国碳排放进行了预测和分析.结果表明:中国排放峰值发生在2030年,全国碳排放总量将达到3684.1636Gg,人均碳排放为2.6476t;在2030年之前中国碳排放量将以平均每年2.89%的速度持续增加.2030—2050年碳排放量将以每年2.09%的速度减少,至2050年,全国碳排放量为2366.4522Gg,人均碳排放为1.8521t.本研究为中国未来碳排放政策的制定提供了方法与数据支持.

Abstract This study analyzed and calculated China＇s gross and per capita carbon emissions from 1987 to 2010 by assuming that carbon emission is proportional to energy consumption.It was found that there was a lack of intrinsic coherence in the carbon emission development before and after 2002,indicating that the data before 2002 can not characterize the future trends.In view of this finding,statistic data of carbon emission from 2002 to 2010,together with variables introduced to represent scientific and technological progress,were employed in an improved IPAT model to predict and analyze China＇s carbon emissions from 2010 to 2050.The results showed that the emission peak will occur in 2030,with a national gross emission of 3647.1836 Gg and the per capita emission of 2.6211 t.Prior to 2030,the mean growth rate of annual gross emission will be 2.89%,and whereas during 2030—2050,it will fall in a rate of 2.09%.In 2050,China＇s gross carbon emission was predicted to be 2366.4522 Gg and per capita 1.8521 t.The method used and data derived in this research will be helpful for future policy making on the carbon emission in China.