江苏省启东市1972-2011年肺癌死亡率变化趋势分析

Trend on mortality changes for lung cancer during 1972-2011 in Qidong, Jiangsu

目的研究1972--2011年江苏省启东市肺癌死亡率变化趋势。方法根据启东市1972--2011年癌症死亡登记数据库，计算肺癌粗死亡率（CR）、中国标化死亡率（CASR）、世界标化死亡率（WASR）、35～64岁截缩死亡率、0～74岁累积死亡率、累积死亡风险及占全部癌症的百分率，并分析做性别、年龄、时间趋势。结果1972--2011年启东市肺癌年均CR为31．15／10万（其中男性45．68／10万，女性16．95／10万），CASR为14．04／10万，WASR为22．95／10万，35—64岁截缩死亡率为31．82／10万，0～74岁累积死亡率为2．93％，累积死亡风险为2．89％，占全部癌症比例为20．50％。肺癌男性死亡率高于女性，性比值为2．69：1。30岁以上年龄组肺癌死亡率随年龄的增加而上升（P=0．000）。1972、1973—1977、1978—1982、1983—1987、1988—1992、1993—1997、1998--2002、2003--2007、2008--2011年9个时期比较，肺癌CR、CASR、WASR、截缩死亡率、累积死亡率、累积死亡风险及占全癌百分率均有所上升，肺癌死亡率时间趋势分析P=0．000。近40年来启东市肺癌CR、CASR和WASR分别增长6．78倍、1．60倍和1．92倍，年均增长百分比则分别为4．78％、1．86％和2．04％。结论近40年来启东市肺癌死亡率有明显上升趋势。

Objective To study the trend of mortality changes on lung cancer during the period 1972 to 2011 in Qidong. Methods Cancer registration data from 1972-2011 in Qidong was used to analyze the following information as： crude mortality rate （CR） of lung cancer, the age- standardized rates by China population （CASR） and the World population （WASR）, the truncated mortality rate of 35-64, the accumulative rate of age from 0 to 74 years old, the accumulative risk, and the total percentage over all sites of cancers. The changes on the trend of mortality by gender, age and period were analyzed. Results The CR of lung cancer was 31.15 per 100 000 （males： 45.68, females： 16.95）. While CASR and WASR were 14.04, and 22.95 per 100 000, respectively. The truncated rate was 31.82 per 100 000. Accumulative rate, accumulative risk, and total percentage were 2.93%, 2.89%, and 20.50% respectively. The mortality rate of lung cancer in males was significantly higher than that in females, with a sex ratio of 2.69 ： 1. CRs increased remarkably with age among those 30-year-olds, with P value being 0.000. When compared with 9 periods of 1972, 1973-1977, 1978-1982, 1983-1987, 1988-1992, 1993-1997, 1998-2002,2003-2007, and 2008-2011, the CRs, CASRs and WASRs increased 6.78-folds, 1.60-folds and 1.92-folds, respectively, with the average annual percentage changes （APC） as 4.78% , 1.86% and 2.04% , respectively. Conclusion The mortality rate of lung cancer among residents during the last four decades in Qidong had been increasing remarkably, suggesting that special attention on lung cancer trend should be highly paid.