用模拟模型预测——水稻品种在南方稻区产量表现的初步研究

Preliminary Study on Using Simulation Model to Predict the Yield Performance of Rice Varieties in Rice Growing Regions of South China

运用CSMP语言的动态模拟模型LID对早籼早中熟组品种华矮837、竹系26和早籼中熟组品种中8349、广陆矮4号4个品种在南方稻区13个点的生育期和产量作了定量模拟。通过修正早籼品种的一些特性参数,能较准确地模拟出各品种在南方稻区不同生态条件下的生育期与产量表现。4个品种的开花期模拟值与实际观察值的平均误差为2.6～3.1天,从开花至成熟天数的模拟值与观察值的平均误差为1.4～2.1天,产量的平均误差为0.5～0.7吨/公顷,以各点总平均值来看,以华矮837的模拟产量与观察产量的吻合性最好(-0.02吨/公顷),中8349和竹系26次之(-0.05吨/公顷,0.06吨/公顷)。广陆矮4号的观察产量明显低于其他3个品种,但其模拟产量显著高于其观察产量且与其他3个品种的模拟产量无显著差异(0.05水平)。本研究为利用模拟指导品种多点试验和进一步连接水、肥、病、虫等以建立较完善的模拟模型,为确定品种的最适种植区域优化栽培措施提供了基础。

The potential productivity and growing duration of early indica varieties,viz.Huaai837,Zhuxi26 (early-medium duration group) and Zhong8349,Guangluai4(medium duration group) at 13 sites of rice growing regions in South China weresimulated quantitatively using LID simulation model in CSMP language.Both weresimulated well after some crop parameters and functions in model were modified.The average error of time to flower,time from flowering to maturing and grainyield between simulated and observed were 2.3—3.1 days,1.4—2.1 days and 0.5—0.7 t/ha,respectively.If based on average of grain yield over the sites,thesimulated was agree to the observed better for Huaai837 (-0.02t/ha),then Zhong8349 and Zhuxi26 (-0.05 t/ha and 0.06 t/ha,respectively).The simulated grainyield for Guangluai4 was significantly higher than its observed grain yield whichwas much lower than other three varieties.This preliminary study can provide aknowledge basis for supporting the multiple locations trial of crop using simulationmodels and through combining some subroutines e.g.water,nutritions,diseasesand pests etc.with basic model establishing more perfect simulation models so asto determine the suitable growing regionalization of crops/varieties and optimiza-tion of culture measurements.