城市化水平和经济增长关系的实证分析——基于全国31个省份面板数据的考察

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between the Level of Urbanization and Economic Growth

本文利用一个城市化水平内生增长模型,借助非平稳面板数据的方法,考察了中国省际城市化水平与经济增长之间的关系。结论表明,虽然中国整体的城市化水平比较低,需要通过提高城市化水平来促进经济增长,但并不是所有省份的城市化水平提高都能促进经济增长,某些省份存在着相对于经济增长的过度城市化问题,其城市化水平的提高对经济增长起负向作用,而且过度城市化的负面效应会抵消投资所带来的效应。

The author uses urbanization endogenous growth model, with the non-stationary panel data methods to study the relationship between the Chinese inter-provincial level of urbanization and economic growth. Conclusion is that, although the overall level of urbanization is relatively low and increasing the level of urbanization could promote economic growth, some provinces exist excessive urbanization, the raise of urbanization level has negative effect on economic growth, and the negative effects of excessive urbanization would offset the effect of the investment.