中国各省造林再造林工程的固碳成本收益分析

Analysis on Cost and Benefit of Carbon Sequestration in Each Province of China: Based on Afforestation and Reforestation Project

通过造林再造林工程进行固碳是应对全球气候变化的重要途径,本文根据土地利用机会成本及净现值的基本原理,借鉴Benítez固碳模型,基于造林再造林工程,对我国各省区的固碳成本收益进行了分析。研究结果表明,考虑土地农业生产机会成本且在折现率为8%的情况下,我国西南、西北地区固碳成本较低;固碳成本最高的省份是广东省,北京次之,最低的省份是云南省;以国际碳交易市场321元/t碳作为市场价格时,云南省的收益最高,为适合造林固碳的最佳省份;各省固碳成本对折现率的敏感性分析表明,折现率越低,固碳成本越低,适合开展造林固碳的省份越多;另外,内蒙古、云南和西藏三省对折现率的变化最为敏感。在研究结果的基础上,本文认为全国应该统筹安排,在不同省份实施不同低碳政策,如东部沿海地区鼓励低碳技术发展,而在西北、西南地区鼓励造林再造林创造碳汇;另外,为了更加有效地推动区域性碳排放交易,提升我国竞争力,建议积极建立国内各区域间的碳汇交易制度,推进省际之间碳排放权交易,合理利用优势资源,达到省与省之间的互利共赢。

Carbon sequestration through afforestation and reforestation projects （AR-project） is an important way to mitigate global climate change, so it is necessary to analyze the cost-benefit of carbon sequestration in each province of China. Based on the basic principles of land use opportunity cost and net present value, used Benitez＇s mode of carbon sequestration, this paper analyzed the cost- benefit of carbon sequestration through AR-project in each region of China. The results show that taking into account the opportunity cost of land use, with the international carbon price of RMB 321 /t and the discount rate of 8% , the cost of carbon sequestration in southwestern and northwestern of China is lower than that in eastern China ; the cost of carbon sequestration in Guangdong Province is the highest, Beijing followed and that cost in Yunnan Province is the lowest, so Yunnan is the most suitable province for AR-project; sensitivity analysis of the discount rate indicates that the lower the discount rate, the lower the cost of carbon sequestration, and the more provinces suitable for AR-project; the most sensitive provinces to the discount rate changes are Mongolia, Yunnan and Tibet. According to the findings, China should implement different low-carbon policies in the different provinces, such as encouraging the development of low-carbon technologies in eastern coastal areas, and encouraging afforestation and reforestation to create carbon sinks in the northwest and southwest. In addition, in order to promote regional trading of carbon emissions and enhance Chinese competition, this paper proposes to establish domestic inter-regional trading system of carbon sinks, and to promote the trading of inter-provincial carbon emissions to achieve win-win benefits between provinces.