人口红利、结构红利与区域经济增长

Demographic Dividend,Structure Dividend and Regional Economic Growth

现有的研究中忽视了人口红利与结构红利具有的内在联系,结果主观的拆分了劳动力投入增加和劳动力部门间转移对经济的增长效应,并在研究过程中对二者的增长路径和传导机制模糊化处理,也就出现了研究结论大相径庭的情况。本文通过在模型中同时引入人口红利和结构红利增长效应的代理变量,对我国四大经济板块进行误差修正分析。研究结果显示人口红利的产出效应在西部和中部地区对经济增长产生抑制作用,而资本积累效应在各个地区均不显著;结构转型过程中的劳动力(行业,空间)流动带来的增长效应在中部和东北地区效果较明显,其他地区甚至是负作用。资本要素(行业,空间)转移作用不明显,在中部和西部地区甚至出现抑制作用。土地要素的形态(用途)转移对东部沿海地区经济增长产生了负向作用,而在中部、西部和东北地区却呈现巨大的促进作用。

Existing researches ignore the internal connection between demographic dividend and structure dividend. As a result, they subjectively split the relationship between the effect on economic growth brought by the increase of labor force and the transfer of labor force among various departments, and fuzz the growth path and transmission mechanism of the two ways, which leads to the totally divided conclusions. This paper introduces a new model which includes the agent variables of the growth effect of both demographic dividend and structure dividend and applies the model to the error correction analysis of China＇ s four major economic sections. The present research shows that the output effect of the demographic dividend has an inhibiting impact on the economic growth in the western and central regions and that the effect of capital accumulation is insignificant in all the regions of China. The growth effect produced by the movement of population （among industries and regions） in the structural transformation is obvious in northeast China and the effect is even negative in other regions, whereas the effect of capital transfer （among industries and regions） is not apparent, even inhibiting effect appearing in central and western areas. Moreover, the form （use） transfer of land has a negative effect on the economic growth of eastern coastal areas, while, in the central, western, and northeast China, it is now playing a great role in the promotion of the economy.