劳动力流动的人口结构与区域经济差异研究

The Research on Structure of Population and the Regional Economic Difference Based on the Labor Mobility

我国劳动力流动伴随着经济发展和区域经济差异呈现出特殊的流动特征和趋势:改革开放以来大量的劳动力流向东南沿海。本文利用我国31个省份1997-2009年的人口总抚养负担系数、从业人员比重以及地区生产总值数据,构建省际面板数据模型,分析总人口中不同年龄阶段的人口对区域经济的影响,分别对东部12省、中部9省以及西部10省的人口弹性进行研究,结果表明我国人口抚养负担的下降对1997-2009年各地区经济增长均表现出促进作用,但中部地区人口弹性最大、东部次之、西部地区人口弹性最小。分析其原因在于:人口年龄结构的变化和经济社会发展水平的差异,使得各地区在吸引劳动力和有效利用劳动力方面差异扩大,反之落后。区域劳动力的大量流出减弱了抚养负担下降对本地的经济促进作用。本文提出,未来将更多的人力资本和教育资源投向西部,是引导劳动力资源合理配置,促使经济均衡增长、产业顺利转移、解决结构性失业等问题的关键所在。

With the economic development, Chinese labor shows a special characteristics and trends in its migration： the south eastern coastal region has attracted a lot of labor in recent years in that it has the economic attractiveness. This paper builds a provincial panel data model by using the total population raising burden coefficient, practitioners＇ proportion and GDP of 31 provinces in 1997 -2009. It aims to analyse the influence of different age populations on economy. The results of the study show that the decline of population burden of support promoted economy from 1997 to 2009. And the central region is the largest in elasticity of population to economy, followed by the eastern region, in while western region is the smallest. The reason is that： changes in age structure of the population social and economicy and development make it difficult to attract labor and utilize labor efficiently. Conversely outflowing labor will weaken the effect of the falling dependency burden in underdeveloped areas. It put forwards that we will invest more human capital and education resources to the western region which is the key to guide the rational allocation of labor resources, promote economy balanced growth, transfer industry smoothly and solve the unemployment problem.