滨海旅游环境承载力评价与量化测度研究——以山东半岛蓝色经济区为例

Evaluation and Quantitative Measurement on Coastal Tourism Environmental Carrying Capacity: A Case Study on the Blue Shandong Peninsula Economic Zone

旅游环境承载力是区域旅游可持续发展的重要评判依据,目前国内外旅游环境承载力研究方法和技术手段仍显不足,多以静态评价分析为主,缺乏动态预测研究,旅游环境承载力定量研究的技术与方法尚需深入探索。本文结合滨海旅游的自身特点,构建由资源、生态、经济、社会四个承载子系统构成的滨海旅游环境承载力评价体系,按照评价体系的层次结构构造判断矩阵,采用层次分析法确定评价指标权重,运用物元评价模型和灰色预测模型,对山东半岛蓝色经济区滨海旅游环境承载力水平进行量化测度与系统分析。结果表明,半岛蓝色经济区滨海旅游环境各个承载子系统存在一定的承载差异,滨海旅游资源和生态环境承载能力较强,滨海旅游经济和社会环境子系统还有较大的承载空间;从时序变化上看,滨海旅游环境综合承载能力不断提高,并呈现可持续的运行态势;从空间差异上看,青岛、烟台、潍坊和威海四个城市滨海旅游环境承载状态处于"良好"等级,而东营、日照和滨州三个城市滨海旅游环境承载状态处于"一般"等级。因此,提高区域整体承载潜力,平衡地区承载差异,对于促进半岛蓝色经济区滨海旅游资源有序开发和滨海旅游产业合理布局具有重要的现实意义。

Tourism environmental carrying capacity is the important evaluation basis of regional tourism sustainable development; however, relative researches on its methods and techniques are still inadequate at home and abroad. Those studies are mostly based on static evaluation analysis and lack of dynamic prediction. So the techniques and methods of quantitative research on tourism environmental carrying capacity still need to be explored in depth timely. In accordance with own characteristics of the coastal tourism, the paper constructs the evaluation system of coastal tourism environmental carrying capacity of four carrying subsystems including resources, ecology, economy and society, and sets up judging matrix by the way of the hierarchy structure of the evaluation system, and then uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process to determine the weight of indexes. After that, the paper adopts the Matter Element Evaluation Model and Gray Prediction Model to quantitatively measure and systematically analyze the coastal tourism environmental carrying capacity of the Blue Shandong Peninsula Economic Zone. The results show that, there are certain carrying differences among the carrying subsystems of coastal tourism environmental carrying capacity in the Blue Shandong Peninsula Economic Zone. Coastal tourism resources and ecological environmental carrying capacity are relative strong, while coastal tourism economic and social environmental subsystems have huge carrying space. Judging from the timing change, the overall coastal tourism environmental carrying capacity continues to be improved, and presents a sustainable running trend. From the point of view of spatial differences, coastal tourism environmental carrying capacity states of Qingdao, Yantai, Weifang, and Weihai remain at the ＂good＂ level, while Dongying, Rizhao and Binzhou are at the ＂normal＂ level. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the overall regional carrying potential and balance regional carrying disparities, ahich has the important practical significance to promote the coastal tourism resources to be orderly developed and the coastal tourism industry to be reasonably distributed in the Blue Shandong Peninsula Economic Zone.