QSIM算法的改进及其对凯恩斯模型的模拟应用

Improvement of the QSIM Algorithm and Simulation on the Keynesian model

本文分析了定性推理 QSIM算法在经济系统等复杂系统中应用的不足 ,提出了增加序列因果关系约束和基于目标搜索的策略 ,并应用修改的 QSIM算法对凯恩斯动态模型进行模拟 ,结果表明 ,定性推理 QSIM算法在经济系统预测和决策具有较好的应用前景。

The QSIM algorithm in qualitative reasoning can handle the uncertain information, forecast the tendency of the system. The paper analyses the shortcoming of QSIM applied in complex system such as economic system. We proposed to adding the constraint of sequential causality and the strategy of goal seeking. When applging the madified QSIM to simulate the Keynesian model, It demonstrates the applied scope of forecasting and making decision in the economic system.