中国需求结构失衡:现状、度量及调整

The Structural Imbalance of Demand of China:Status,Measure and Adjustment

本文首先介绍了我国需求结构的内外需失衡、消费投资失衡、居民消费和政府消费失衡的现状,然后从三大失衡入手构建我国的需求结构失衡指数。研究表明,从中国需求结构失衡的权重来看,内外需结构失衡的权重最大,历年均超过40%。从不考虑权重的失衡指数来看,我国需求结构失衡主要是消费和投资的失衡;从考虑权重构建的需求结构失衡指数来看,消费和投资的失衡仍旧构成了需求结构失衡的主要部分,且需求结构出现过两次大的失衡高峰期,第一次是1993年前后,第二次是2000年以来。最后结合中国实际和本文结论,提出了相应的政策建议。

The paper first introduces the imbalance of internal and external demand,consumption and investment,household consumption and government consumption,and then builds the structural imbalance index.Studies show that the weight of the structural imbalance of internal and external demand is the largest one which is more than 40% each year.However,the main one is the imbalance of consumption and investment without considering the weight imbalance index.While from the point of view of considering the rebuilding the structure of demand imbalance index,consumption and investment imbalances still constitute the main part of the structural imbalance of demand.And there are two major imbalances in the peak period,one happened in 1993 and the other in 2000.Finally the paper gives the appropriate policy recommendations.