FDI、农业技术进步与农村剩余劳动力转移——基于“合力模型”的理论与实证研究

FDI,agricultural technology progress and transference of redundant rural labor force ——theoretical and empirical based on "integrated model"

用FDI产业梯度转移和农业技术进步实现城乡统筹发展,已是当前加快中国经济发展方式转变的必然要求。系统构建了包含FDI、农业技术进步和农村剩余劳动力转移在内的"合力模型"的理论分析框架,采用1996-2009年中国28个省级单位的面板数据进行实证检验。全国层面的研究表明,FDI形成的"拉力"和农业技术进步形成的"推力"对农村剩余劳动力转移均有显著的正向影响。分地区层面的研究表明,东部地区FDI对农村剩余劳动力转移的"拉力"要远远高于中西部地区,但农业技术进步对农村剩余劳动力转移的"推力"要明显低于中西部地区。城乡收入差距对中西部地区农村剩余劳动力转移具有显著的正向影响,但对东部地区农村剩余劳动力转移具有显著的负向影响。

It is necessary to use gradient transfer of FDI and agricultural technology progress to achieve coordinative development of ur- ban and rural areas for speeding up the transition of economic developing mode in current. On the basis of ＂Push - pull＂ theory, this paper constructs an analytical framework of ＂integrated model＂ that includes FDI, agricultural technology progress and transference of redundant rural labor force, and makes empirical study based on the panel data of 28 Chinese provinces from 1996 to 2009. Results from the whole country show that, the ＂ pull＂ of FDI and the ＂ push＂ of agricultural technology progress both have significant positive impacts on promoting the transference of redundant rural labor force. The real urban - rural income disparity and the size of non - agri- cultural industries have significant positive ＂ pull＂ impacts too. ＂ Intermediate power＂ plays complex roles, such as labor market flexi- bility has a significant positive impact, while the urban unemployment rate is all the other way. For diverse areas, the real urban - rural income disparity has a significant positive impact in the eastern, but appears contrary to the central and western on the transference of redundant rural labor force, and the unemployment rate is insignificant. The ＂pull＂ of FDI in the eastern is much higher, but the ＂push＂ of agricultural technology progress is significant lower than the central and western.