内生增长、政府生产性支出与中国居民消费

Endogenous Growth,Government Productive Spending and China's Private Consumption

中国财政支出的较大一部分用于生产建设,中国居民消费与政府生产性支出表现出稳健的正相关关系,这一事实与从标准的新古典和新凯恩斯模型得出的挤出效应截然不同。本文构建了包含存量和流量两部分政府生产性支出的内生增长模型,研究表明,政府支出增加在提高税负、挤出居民消费的同时,也通过其生产性增加收入、挤入居民消费;政府支出增加究竟挤入还是挤出居民消费取决于两种效应的比较以及政府的生产性支出比重和税负水平。政府生产性支出的最优结构等于其相对生产性之比,政府支出的最优规模等于政府支出的生产性。

A large part of China＇s government spending is laid for productive purposes. Contrary to the crowding-out effect from both New Classical Macroeeonomics and New Keynesian models, China＇ s private consumption and government spending show robust positive eorrelationship. In this paper we set up an endogenous growth model in which productive government spending takes forms of both stock and flow. The studies show that government spending crowds out private consumption through negative wealth effect on one hand, and crowds in it through positive productive externality on private capital on the other. Whether private consumption will rise following an increase in government spending depends on which effect is larger. The effect of government spending on private consumption depends on the productivity level and the composition as well as the size of government spending. The size of optimal government spending is equal to its total productivity and the optimal composition of government productive spending is equal to its relative productivity.