我国城乡通货膨胀的趋同演化及影响因素

The Rural-urban Inflation Convergence and Its Causes in China

本文基于一价定律和我国的经济转型背景,针对城乡通胀的数据演化特征,设定内生性结构突变的平滑机制转移模型,以此检验我国城乡通胀的趋同性及其非线性调节特征,揭示我国城乡商品市场分割与整合的演化进程。结果表明:(1)我国城乡通胀差是在1994年发生结构变化的平稳过程,平稳性表明我国城乡通胀具有趋同性,城乡商品市场整体呈现一体化特征。(2)1994年前,我国城乡商品市场分割程度较大,城乡商品流通的非套利区间较宽,城乡通胀差向均衡的回调速度较快;1994年后,城乡商品流通的非套利区间较小,城乡商品市场整合程度进一步深化,城乡通胀差向均衡的回调速度较慢。(3)城乡商品流通的运输成本、信息成本和贸易壁垒等因素较好地解释了1994年后城乡通货膨胀的趋同演化。本文结果说明,城乡二元结构的逐步消除和我国近期所实施的推动城乡经济协调发展的政策,显著促进了城乡经济一体化。

Aimed at the rural-urban inflation data feature and based on the economic restructuring, this paper tests the stability of rural-urban inflation difference using endogenous structural break ESTAR model to reveal the process of integration of rural-urban commodity market. The results show that the difference rural-urban inflation is stationary process which means that rural-urban commodity market has the integration trend, and the structural break is at 1994. Before 1994, the degree of market segmentation of Chinese rural-urban is bigger than that after 1994, the non-arbitrage interval of rural-urban commodity is wider and the speed of mean-reversion is slower than that after 1994. Therefore, rural-urban market integration trend is more obvious after 1994. Transportation costs, information costs, trade barrier explains the trend of urban-rural inflation convergence. These results show that the gradual elimination of rural-urban dual structure and the recently policy of promoting the coordinated development of rural-urban economic significantly promote the urban-rural economic integration process.