需求、结构、竞争力与中国蔬菜出口增长——基于修正的CMS模型

Demand,Structure,Competitiveness and the Vegetable Export Growth of China:An Analysis Based on Revised CMS model

文章利用修正的CMS模型,从需求、结构和竞争力三个维度对1997～2010年中国蔬菜出口的增长效应及各影响因素的作用强度和变化趋势进行了实证分析。研究表明,出口竞争力是中国蔬菜出口增长的主要影响因素,但对出口增长的作用强度有所减弱;快速增长的进口需求对中国蔬菜出口增长的促进作用逐渐增强;不断改善的出口结构对中国蔬菜出口增长的正面促进作用逐步显现。

Based on the revised CMS model, this paper analyzes the export growth of China＇s vegetables and the effect intensity and variation tendency of the influencing factors from the three dimensions of demand, structure and competitiveness during 1997-2010. The results show that： export competitiveness is the main influencing factor of the vegetable export growth of China, but its effect intensity is weakening; the role of the fast-growing market demand in promoting the vegetable export growth has gradually increased; the positive effect of the continuously-improved export structure on the vegetable export growth has gradually become noticeable.