新世纪以来美国对伊朗的政策研究

U.S. Iran Policy Since the New Century

在小布什政府时期,阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争及伊朗核问题等构成了美国与伊朗关系的特殊背景。依据小布什政府在此背景下实施的一系列具体的对伊政策,可归纳出如下结论:小布什政府对伊朗政策的核心目标是伊朗停止铀浓缩活动,其根本目标是伊朗的政权更迭。在奥巴马政府执政初年,美伊关系的原有背景没有太大变化,但美对外政策受国内金融危机影响日增,因此奥巴马政府对伊朗政策的目标和限制因素同小布什政府的基本相同,但在实现目标的手段上作了调整,突出表现在对伊朗实施了无条件接触政策。但因"接触政策"效果不佳,以及受后来的撤军伊拉克、中东剧变、战略重心加速东移等影响,奥巴马政府在其实现目标的手段上逐渐回归小布什政府的强制性外交老路,而且有过之无不及。与此同时,奥巴马政府还加强了对伊朗的"秘密战争"。

During the years that the G.W.Bush administration was in power, the Afghanistan war, the Iraq war and the Iran nuclear issue constituted the specific background of the American-Iranian relations during the time of the G.W.Bush administration. Based on the series of concrete Iran policies carried out against this background by the G.W.Bush administration, we can draw the following conclusions that the core goal of the Bush administration＇s Iran polices was Iran＇s suspending its nuclear enrichment activities, and that the ultimate goal of the administration＇s Iran policies was regime change in Iran. The Obama administration＇s first year in office saw no great changes in the background of American-Iranian relations but the growing impact of the internal financial crisis on America＇s foreign policy, so during this time the Obama administration＇s Iran policies were of no great difference from that of the Bush administration＇s in terms of the goals and limiting factors, but changed to some degree in the means to reach the goals, which was especially shown in its engagement policy toward Iran. With the engagement policy＇s not working and the later impact of its withdrawal of forces from Iraq, the Middle East upheaval, the accelerated eastward move of America＇s strategic gravity, the Obama administration gradually went back even in the means to reach the goals to the old ways of coercive diplomacy carded out by the G.W.Bush administration and went even farther. At the same time, the Obama administration intensified the ＂secrete war＂ against Iran.