中东剧变与中东军火贸易的发展

Middle East Upheaval and the Development of the Arms Trades in the Middle East

本文从剖析中东地区军火贸易的产生及发展入手,重点分析了2010年以来中东变局对地区军火贸易的发展格局、商品结构、供需市场等多方面产生的影响。由此得出结论:在中东变局的影响下,该地区极有可能掀起军备升级狂潮、再攀军火贸易高峰。从一定程度上看,军火贸易是军备竞赛的"晴雨表",中东地区军火贸易的不断扩大反映了地区军备竞赛的升级加剧,会导致地区安全形势恶化、经济发展延缓、恐怖主义活动猖獗,将对阿拉伯—伊斯兰地区稳定和可持续发展造成极大冲击,中东地区的军备控制依然任重而道远。

This article analyses the development and current state of the arms trade in the Middle East, discusses the profound impact of the Middle East upheaval to the arms trade in the area since 2010, including trade pattern, trade structure, trade markets etc. The article concludes that the Middle East upheaval will bring some negative influences on the arms trade, and the Middle East countries are very likely to carry out the huge arms purchase program. The sustained growth of the arms trade will lead to serious consequences such as the keenly contested arms race, which is likely to impact the security and economy in the Middle East, and lead to rampancy of the international terrorism and cause immeasurable damage to the stability and sustainable development. Heavy responsibilities are left for the arms control in the Middle East.