基于技术创新不同投入产出指标的中国能源消费影响因素的实证研究

Empirical Research on Influence Factors of Energy Consumption in China——Based on Different Input and Output Index of Technological Innovation

在技术因素用不同指标表示的情形下,通过对能源消费影响因素进行实证分析,均发现经济发展水平、产业结构因素、城市化进程、外商直接投资、能源价格变动、技术创新(进步)以及行之有效的政策制度,是影响地区能源消费强度的重要因素。能源价格的变动对于技术创新有强烈的诱致作用,能源价格的变动在很大程度上是通过诱致性技术创新对能源消费起作用的。从整体上看,技术创新(进步)对于能源消费弹性的确具有反弹效应,但由于目前中国整体的技术创新(进步)水平还未达到限值的阶段,因此加快技术创新(进步)水平还将是降低能源消费强度的重要手段。

The paper applies the panel data of different provinces in China and has positive analysis on energy consumption. The empirical results show that economic development, industrial structure, urbanization, foreign direct investment, energy price fluctuation, technological innovation and effective policies are the most important factors of energy consumption. The change of energy price has a strong induced effect on technological innovation. In addition, technological innovation does have rebounded effect on energy consumption.