基于分行业级别的钢铁需求预测研究

Study on Needs Prediction Model in Steel Industry Based on Different Levels

不同于其他数据分析模型,本文利用钢铁行业历史数据分析预测特定年行业产量,偏重于分析终端消费群体未来发展的用钢需求变化,获取"有效需求",通过分行业的"终端消费产生有效需求"理论,预测2015年的国内钢材需求量、国内钢材产量。以2011年的产能状况为基准,设置两种情景(产能不变情景,产能过剩情景)。并分别对产能过剩的危害和产能增加维持行业健康发展的应对策略进行分析。结果显示,产能不变情景下的行业产能利用率,产能过剩情景下产能年平均扩张速度与产能利用率。

The paper differently uses the date analysis model in historical production date of industry to predict the output of particular year, by choosing the end consumer groups and corresponding demand trend to predict the ＂Effective Demand＂. Based on the theory, end consumer creates effective demand, there exist both domestic and foreign consumption demands. Designing two scenes which use steel capacity of 2011 as the base situation, the paper analysis the harm of overcapacity and the coping strategies to maintain industry healthy development. The conclusion from the research is the capacity utilization while the capacity unchanges, the annual average expanding speed and capacity utilization in overca- pacity scene. The paper can provide references for industry planners to promote the industry to develop healthly.