近50年兰州市城市化过程的气候环境效应

The urbanization effect on climate and environment of Lanzhou in recent 50 years

选取1961～2009年兰州市气候观测资料,采用城郊对比法,分析兰州市气候环境变化特征,发现兰州市城市气候存在明显的热岛效应、干岛效应和暗岛效应,雨岛效应则不明显。在运用主成分分析法得到城市综合发展指标的基础上,应用回归分析建立城市化过程与气候环境变化之间的关联模型,其中三次回归模型拟合效果最好。分析表明:兰州市热岛效应和暗岛效应的环境库茨涅兹曲线现象比较明显,而此现象在干岛效应和雨岛效应中并不存在,兰州市经济发展与环境质量之间并不完全符合环境库茨涅兹曲线规律。

On the base of climate observation data from 1961 to 2009 of lanzhou city and the comparison between city and suburb, the change feature analysis of urban climate environment found that the urban climate existed ur ban heat island effect , urban dry island effect and urban dark island effect. However, the urban rain island effect was not obvious. Using the regression analysis, the relationship models between Urbanization and climate change were established. The results showed that the cubic regression model had the best simulation effect. A nalysis showed that the Environmental Kuznets Curve phenomenon in urban heat island effect and urban dark is land effect was quite obvious . While, urban dry island effect and urban rain island effect did not exist. The eco nomic development and environmental quality of lanzhou City did not fully coincide with environmental Kuznets Curve rule.