耕地集约利用时空特征及其变化规律研究——以新疆为例

Spatial-temporal characteristics and the change laws of intensive use of cultivated land in Xinjiang

结合新疆各地州实际情况,运用熵值法筛选出10个指标构建了耕地集约利用评价指标体系,运用熵值法和层次分析法相结合确定权重并计算了新疆各地州耕地集约利用综合指数;采用系统聚类法将新疆耕地集约利用水平分为4类,并在AUTOCAD支持下制作了新疆耕地集约利用评价图;运用相关分析法和回归分析法分析了新疆耕地集约利用的变化规律。结果表明:1)新疆耕地集约利用水平时序变化明显且空间差异较大。1991～2007年新疆多数地州耕地集约利用水平均呈现稳步提高的态势,北疆提高最快,东疆次之,南疆提高较慢;耕地集约利用水平北疆分化严重,东疆差异最大,南疆差别较小;2)耕地集约利用水平与各地州农业发展水平高度正相关,相关系数r=0.909(p<0.01),与各地州之间经济发展水平高低、农业人口人均耕地数量、农作物种植结构的相关性不明显。

Considering the actual situation in Xinjiang, the indicators that can affect intensive use of cultivated land were selected by consulting experts and entropy method. The weight of each index was confirmed by entropy method and AHP method. The degree of intensive use of cultivated land in Xinjiang regions during the period of 1991 to 2007 was calculated by integrated index method and the spatial temporal characteristics and its change laws 9f intensive use of cultivated land were analyzed by cluster analysis, correlation analysis and regression anal ysis. The results indicated that the temporal variability and spatial difference of intensive use level of cultivated land in Xinjiang were very obvious. The level of intensive use of cultivated land in most regions from 1991 to 2007 showed a steady increase, the increasing speed was the fastest in North Xinjiang, followed by eastern Xin jiang, where as southern region improved slowly. The difference of the degree of intensive use of cultivated land was serious in North Xinjiang and the biggest difference was existed in eastern Xinjiang. The intensive use level of cultivated land had a highly positive relationship with the level of agricultural development, the correlation co efficient r = 0.909 （p 〈0.01 ）. However, the relationships between intensive use level of cultivated landand and regional economic development level, number of cultivated land per farmer, and crop planting structure were not obvious.