电子商务交易额预测的模糊线性回归研究

The Prediction of the E-commerce Transactions Based on the Fuzzy Linear Regression

交易额是衡量电子商务发展水平高低的一个重要指标,因此研究交易额的影响因素就尤为必要。本文根据中国电子商务交易额和互联网发展数据,考虑因变量在不同时期的差异隶属,计算出模糊线性回归模型的估计表达式;得到网民数、国际出口带宽、网站数较大程度的影响电子商务交易额。并预测这三个影响因素的未来发展以及2011年的电子商务交易额的预测,最后提出相关政策建议。

Transactions is one of important volune to measure the electronic commerce,so it is necessary to study the influence factors . According to Chinese e-commerce transactions and the development data from Internet and considering the differences of the dependent variable at different periods, we calculates the estimates expression of the regression function. We obin Internet users and International bandwidth are Important factors. Comparing with classical linear regression analysis, this paper indicats that this model can describe the inner structure of data and improve the accuracy of prediction significantly. Finally put forward Suggestions to increase the e-commerce transaction.