从两枝世界政治论看“阿拉伯之春”

Arab Spring and Bifurcated Structure of World Politics

"阿拉伯之春"让中东—北非各国政治转型充满动荡和磨难,其原因众说纷纭。本文重点选取突尼斯、埃及和利比亚三国作为个案,结合"两枝世界政治理论"的微观参数、中观参数和宏观参数分析阿拉伯巨变的内因和外因。从微观参数来看,以信息革命为主的公民技能革命使中东—北非各国公民技能普遍提高,从而对政府的合法性提出挑战;从中观参数来看,中东—北非各国政府的绩效标准日益不能满足公众更高的要求,导致民众对政府的支持和信赖出现危机;从宏观参数来看,国家行为体之间、国家行为体与非国家行为体相互作用,联合国及法国等对反对派的支持使得中东—北非各国国内问题国际化。在日益多元化和复杂化的国际国内因素影响下,阿拉伯世界未来前景如何,还有待于进一步观察。

The Jasmine Revolution,first breaking out in Tunisia,and then sweeping across the whole Middle East and North Africa,is extremely important in terms of its scale and impact.There are various analyses about its causes,while this dissertation selects Tunisia,Egypt and Syria as cases combining the micro-parameter,median-parameter and macro-parameter proposed by James Rosenau to analyze the external as well as the internal causes for Arab Spring,and probe into its possible future.