基于AHP-MF模型的国际水电EPC项目风险评价研究

Risk Evaluation of International EPC Hydropower Project Based on AHP-MF Model

近年来,我国水电工程承包企业不断走出国门对外总承包工程,年均增长速度保持在20%左右。在分析识别国际水电EPC项目风险因素的基础上,从环境、技术、财务、进度、管理等五个方面构建了风险评价指标体系。基于专家丰富经验的同时,利用层次分析法(AHP)建立判断矩阵,并用软件Matlab 6.5计算出各判断矩阵的最大特征值及其特征向量,继而确定出各指标的权重,最后应用模糊数学方法(Fuzzy)对项目进行风险评价和分析,以期为水电工程企业进行国际EPC项目风险评价和管理决策提供科学合理的依据。

In recent years,Chinese hydropower based contractors have been expanding their international market share and average annual growth rate is about 20%.Risk factors of international EPC hydropower projects are identified and a risk evaluation index system is built from five aspects of environment,technology,finance,schedule,and management.Combined with experience of experts,the judgment matrix is constructed using Analytic Hierarchy Process.The maximum eigenvalue and eigenvector are calculated by Mat lab 6.5.Then,the weight of each index is determined.Finally,fuzzy mathematical method（Fuzzy） is used in risk evaluation and analysis of EPC hydropower project.