具有主观取值倾向的离散灰数预测模型及其应用

Prediction model of discrete grey number with subjective valued orientation and its application

针对灰色理论既有成果尚无法对具有主观取值倾向的离散灰数序列建立预测模型的问题,通过构建标准离散灰数"核"序列、"灰单元格"面积序列以及元素"取值可能性"序列的灰色预测模型群,实现离散灰数及其元素取值可能性大小的预测,从而建立具有主观取值倾向的离散灰数预测模型,将所提出的模型应用于空气监测点空气污染指数(API)的模拟及预测,取得了较好的效果,对拓展灰色预测模型的应用范围具有积极意义。

The existing achievements of grey theory still cannot build a prediction model of discrete grey number with subjective valued orientation. Therefore, a group of grey forecasting model is built based on the sequences of ＂core＂, ＂area of grey Cell grid＂ and ＂possible values＂ of standard discrete grey numbers, which realizes the prediction of discrete grey numbers and their possible values, and then the prediction model of discrete grey number with subjective valued orientation is built. The model is employed to simulate and forecast the API （air pollution index） of air monitoring point, and a fine result is obtained, which has a vital significance for extending the applied scope of grey prediction model.