抗战时期通货膨胀的计量研究

The Measurement Study on the Inflation during the War of Resistance

以抗战时期历年货币发行量为解释变量,以抗战时期物价指数为被解释变量,对货币的发行量和物价指数之间的关系进行回归分析,分析结果显示,作为解释变量的货币发行与被解释变量物价指数之间的相关系数为1.4127,即货币发行量每增长1%,物价指数上涨1.4127%,这表明通货膨胀的最主要因素是货币因素。但国民政府却主要通过物质供需平衡来治理通货膨胀,没有采取严格控制通货发行来管制物价,治理措施严重失当是造成物价快速上涨的主要原因。

Put the Anti-Japanese War over the amount of currency issue as the explanatory variable and the price index as the dependent variable, then make the regression analysis between them. The analysis result shows that the correlation coefficient between the explanatory variable of the currency issue and the dependent variable of the price index is 1. 4127, that is wich each 1% increase of monetary circulation, the price index will rise 1. 4127%, which indicates that inflation is the most important factor to the monetary factors. But the national government mainly take the material balance of supply and demand to control inflation, instead of the strict control of currency issue to control price, and the serious misconduct measures are the main reason of causing prices fast rising.