中国地震预报方法实用化攻关研究的意义及其进展

SIGNIFICANCE AND ACHIEVEMENTS OF KEY TASK RESEARCH ON THE APPLICATION OF METHODS OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

中国地震预报方法实用化研究以攻关的形式,集中全国800多名科技骨干,组织了地震学、定点形变、大地测量、地下水动态、水文地球化学、地电学、地磁学、重力学、钻孔应变应力及综合预报等10个学科方法的学术攻关小组,历经两年取得了5个方面的突出进展。这是国家地震局继1983—1985年的地震前兆系统清理研究之后的又一重大科研活动。10个学科方法的分析预报指南及其相应的计算机软件程序的研制,不仅是我国20年来地震预报经验的全面总结,也是中国第一代预报工作者留给后人的宝贵财富。实用化研究的完成标志着我国地震分析预报开始了一个新的起点。

It has taken two years for more than 800 backbone scientific and technical workers from the whole country,organized into 10 scientific key-problem-tackling groups on seis- mology,fix-point deformation,geodesy,groundwater changes,hydro-geochemistry,telluric current,geomagnetism,gravity,borehole strain and stress,and comprehensive prediction to complete the research project on the application of methods of earthquake prediction in China,with outstanding developments achieved in 5 aspects.This is another major scientific research activity undertaken by the State Seismological Bureau following the project of sys- tematic studies of earthquake precursors from 1983—1985.A guidebook for analysis and prediction with 10 disciplinary methods and its corresponding computer software programs developed is not only a comprehensive summing-up of earthquake prediction experience ga- ined in the past 20 years,but also the valuable wealth for the younger generation handed down by the first generation of Chinese prediction workers.The accomplishment of research on the application of the methods of earthquake prediction has marked a new starting point of earthquake analysis and prediction in China.