1960-2009年新疆气温时空变化及影响因子分析

Analysis on varification of air temperature and impact factors in Xinjiang from 1960 to 2009

利用新疆81个基准站气温观测资料使用距平法分析1960年-2009年气温随时间的变化情况,发现年平均气温处于逐年上升态势,以1977年为界,之前负距平,之后正距平。最高气温升温幅度不及最低气温,历年平均气温升高主要来自最低气温(冬季)升高的贡献。1960年-2009年全疆年平均气温为8℃,最低气温1.8℃,最高气温15.1℃,满足线性变化。利用GIS技术分析全疆历年温度的空间变化,结果是全疆平均气温均在0℃以上,南疆高出北疆至少5℃、高出天山北坡至少10℃。预计到2020年,全疆平均气温将继续升高近0.5℃。由于新疆地广人稀,影响太阳和地表长波与短波辐射的总、低云量逐年增加成为除了温室效应和城市热岛效应以外导致气温升高的另一主要原因。

Using the observation data of air temperature of 81 base stations in Xinjiang from 1960 to 2009,we found that the average air temperature was in the trend of increasement.It was negative anomaly from 1960 to 1977 and positive anomaly from 1977 to 2009.The increased frame of minimum temperature was more than maximum temperature,which devoted to the increased average temperature.In Xinjiang,the average air temperature was 8℃,the minimum air temperature was 1.8℃ and the maximum air temperature was 15.1℃ from 1960 to 2009.The aboved three types temperature varified linearly.Based on the technique of GIS we got about the special distribution of temperatures in XinJiang from 1960 to 2009.Tthe average air temperatures of all stations were above 0℃.The temperatures of stations in South of Xinjiang were higher at least 5℃ than others in North of Xinjiang,and were higher than the rest in the North of Tianshan Mountains at least 10℃.By 2020,the average air temperature of whole Xinjiang will increase nearly 0.5℃.Because Xinjiang was sparsely populated,the increasement of the sum of total cloud or low-cloud,which affected the longwave and shortwave radiations from the sun and the surface,became another main reason besides the greenhouse effect and urban heat island effect which led to the increasement of temperature.