气候变暖对新疆乌昌地区棉花产量的影响——以玛纳斯、呼图壁县为例

The impact of global warming to cotton yield in Changji region of Xinjiang-Manasi and Hutubi counties

以新疆乌昌地区棉花主产区的玛纳斯、呼图壁县为例,利用1981-2009年两县的棉花产量数据和同期气温资料,在对近29年年平均气温、棉花生长季平均气温、≥10℃积温和无霜期等热量条件变化趋势和变化特征研究分析的基础上,就不同生长发育时段热量条件对棉花产量形成的满足程度进行了分析,结果显示,29年来大部分时段的温度变化对棉花生长发育和产量形成并无促进作用,从气候变暖对棉花产量形成机理方面,提出了趋利避害的对策建议。

Taking Manasi and Hutubi counties in Urumqi-Changji region of Xinjiang as the study area,based on the data of daily temperature and cotton yield from 1981 to 2009,the change trends of annual mean temperature,cotton growing season mean temperature,annual accumulated temperature of≥10℃and frost-free period were analyzed by using the methods of linear regression.And the fitness of heat conditions in different periods of cotton growing season to the cotton yield were analyzed,the advantages and disadvantages of climate warming on the cotton production were discussed,the measures of drawing on the advantages and avoiding disadvantages to promoting the cotton production were recommended in this paper.