库尔勒城市化进程对土地利用格局变化的影响

The impact of Korla's urbanization process on regional land use change

利用TM/ETM影像数据、统计年鉴数据及第二次土地利用调查数据,采用相关分析和经济学中的协整理论以及Granger因果关系法研究近20a库尔勒城市化进程对土地利用格局的影响。结果表明:库尔勒城市化与耕地、园地、林地、居民及工矿用地、交通用地、水利用地比例的二阶差分存在长期稳定的均衡关系。城市化是耕地、林地、居民及工矿用地、交通用地比例变化Granger原因,其中城市化与耕地比例变化的Granger关系显著,城市化与园地、水利用地不存在Granger关系。Granger因果关系法是验证城市化与土地利用格局变化关系的有力方法,同时库尔勒城市化所带来一系列对土地的影响不容忽视。

The purpose of this study is to explore the urbanization and landuse form of Korla in Xinjiang based on the data of TM/ETM,statistical yearbook and the second land use investigation.Correlation analysis,co-integration theory and Granger causality analysis were used to study the impact of urbanization on impact of landuse.The results showed that there exits long-term stability of second-order difference between urbanization and cultivated land,garden land,forest land,residents and mining land,land for traffic,water conservancy lands with logarithmic form.Urbanization is the Granger reason for the changes of cultivated land,forest,residential and industrial area,traffic land.While the relationship between cropland and urbanization is the most significant,the relationship between garden,water resources conservancy lands and urbanization are not significant.Granger causality method is a good method to verify urbanization and patterns of land use change,at the same time problem the urbanization brought to the lands of Korla can not be ignored.