基于通径分析的能源消费影响因素研究

Study on energy consumption's determinants based on path analysis

以1995-2009年《中国统计年鉴及中国能源统计年鉴》有关数据为依据,利用主成分分析和通径分析的方法分析了经济发展水平、产业结构、人口因素、能源效率和城镇化水平对能源消费的直接效应和间接效应。结果表明:五大因素除直接影响能源消费外,还通过其它因素间接地影响最终能源消费量;人口因素和经济发展水平不仅直接消耗能源,其它因素也主要通过这两项因素间接地影响最终能源消费量,而且人口因素的作用要大于经济发展水平的作用;能源利用效率的提高和产业结构的优化调整不仅直接降低最终的能源消费量,其它因素也主要通过这两项因素间接地降低最终的能源消费量,其中能源效率的提高比产业结构优化调整更能有效的降低能源消费量。

This article explored the direct and indirect effects of energy consumption＇s determinants by path analysis and principal component analysis,which included economic development,industrial structure,demographic factor,energy efficiency and industrialization levels.The conclusions were as follows： Firstly,the determinants had influenced on energy consumption indirectly by each other as well as directly by itself.Secondly,demographic factor and economic development influenced the final energy consumption directly,the other determinants affected energy consumption by the two determinants indirectly as well.Demographic factor played a more important role in impacting energy consumption than economic development.Finally,the improvement of energy efficiency and readjusting and optimizing the industrial structure reduced energy consumption directly,the other determinants decreased energy consumption by the two determinants indirectly as well.The improving of energy efficiency played a more important role in economizing energy consumption than readjusting and optimizing the industrial structure.