河南省玉米生产循环波动分析

Analysis on the cycle fluctuation of the maize production in Henan Province

采用剩余法探讨河南省玉米生产循环波动及其特征.结果表明,1978—2010年河南省玉米生产经历了1985—1992年、1993—2003年2个古典型循环波动,波动幅度较大,分别为0.28,0.20.其中,玉米单产是影响总产量波动的主要直接因素,政府宏观政策调控、玉米市场的供需状况、气候条件和生产技术的改进等是影响总产量波动的间接因素.由此可知,在未来河南省玉米生产的过程中,仍需进一步加大生产投入,稳定单产,促进河南省玉米生产的长期、稳定、协调发展.

The remaining method was used to measure and analyze the fluctuation of maize production in Henan province. The result improves that： from 1978 to 2010 the maize production in Henan prov- ince experienced two classical periodic fluctuations which from 1985 to 1993 and 1994 to 2003. The fluctuation has high wave amplitude which is 0.28 and 0.20. Output of per unit area is one main factor which influences the fluctuation of output. The government macro-control policy and the change in de- mand of maize market and the weather conditions and the improvement of production technology are the indirect factors which influence the fluctuation of output. Therefore a constant input and stable output of per unit area are important to help promote a long-term and stable and harmonious development maize production in Henan Province.