美欧经济动荡及其对中国的深远影响

Economic Turbulence in the U.S.and Europe and Impact on China

美欧自金融危机爆发延续至今的经济动荡,并非源于偶然的政策失误,也不能归于周期性经济阵痛,实际属于经济模式遭遇的深刻危机,这意味着美国金融霸权主导的国际体系已处于超载状态,世界经济将长期陷于低迷,步入重大动荡期和调整期。为摆脱危机美国的政策调整可能在世界范围产生传导效应甚至危害,对国际战略总体形势以及中国的发展与安全产生重大而深远的影响。中美之间的战略竞争已进入深度互动的关键时期,这一时期将持续十年甚至更长时间。中美之间尤其在亚太地区的战略博弈,不仅具有前所未有的全面性和深刻性,也具有前所未有的复杂性和敏感性。对此中国应充分认识国际体系变迁以及由此带来的国家间关系的复杂化趋势,趋利避害,有效消解战略压力,坚决维护对外关系的总体平衡和稳定,本着冷静观察、充分准备、积极应对的原则,有针对性地投棋布子,积极运筹国际变局,尤其应重点强化经营周边的力度,拓展回旋空间。

The economic turbulence that the United States and European countries have encountered since the financial crisis is neither due to accidental policy failure nor be attributed to cyclical economic pain.As part of the profound crisis that the economic model and hegemonic system suffered,the crisis is meant that financial expansion has also reached a limit.The U.S.military and financial strength is not able to stop the irreversible decline of its hegemony and provide fundamental protection for global strategic stability.To some extent,it will deepen the conflict between rich and poor,monopoly interests and dispersed needs,thus causing new turbulence.The danger of a Sino-U.S.conflict is far from inevitable;competition and cooperation coexists.In a changing world,it's good for both China and the U.S.to maintain communication and coordination more actively.