大国经济成长模式及其国际政治后果——海外贸易、国内市场与权力转移

Economic Development Pattern of Great Powers and its International Political Consequence:Overseas Trade,Domestic Market and Power Transition

19世纪末20世纪初,德国与美国的经济得到了迅速发展。为何美国的经济成长没有引发英美两国的强烈对抗,而德国经济的崛起却将英德两国推向战争?作者认为,与美国相比,德国依靠海外市场的经济成长模式对英国构成的挑战与冲击更为迫切与直接,英德两国从经济竞争走向了军备竞赛,并最终走向了战争。相比之下,美国依靠国内市场的经济成长模式对英国的冲击相对较小,因此美国能实现权力的和平转移。在对德国与美国经济成长模式以及古代中国"五百年的和平"、二战后日本的经济成长历程进行了跨地区、跨历史比较之后,作者认为,不同的大国经济成长模式往往会带来不同的国际政治后果,和平发展需要国内基础,国内市场的拓展是大国和平成长的重要基础。

In the late nineteenth and early twentieth century,Germany and the U.S.both achieved fast economic development;however,the U.S.didn't provoke antagonistic action of Great Britain while Germany's rise led a war between Germany and Britain.The author argues that,compared with the U.S.,German economic development pattern heavily depended on overseas market which directly posed a challenge to the hegemony of Britain.In contrast,the U.S.economic pattern mainly relied on domestic market,which had relatively less impact on Britain and facilitated a peaceful power transition between the U.S.and Britain.Based on a trans-historical and trans-regional comparison,the author demonstrates that different economic development patterns have different international political consequences,and peaceful development needs domestic foundation.Therefore,expanding domestic market is critical for great powers to achieve peaceful economic development.