我国卫生保健相对价格对人均卫生费用的影响研究:基于ARDL模型的分析

Research of Effect of Relative Prices of Health Care on Health Expenditure Per Capita in China:Based on ARDL Model Analysis

目的:深入研究卫生保健商品或服务的相对价格对人均卫生费用的短期与长期影响。方法:基于1986—2009年宏观时间序列数据,在考虑人均GDP、政府卫生投入等因素前提下,采用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)与误差修正模型(ECM)进行分析。结果与结论:⑴卫生保健商品相对价格对于人均实际卫生费用的影响要明显大于卫生保健服务相对价格和政府卫生投入比例增长率的影响;⑵相对于其他消费品,卫生保健商品相对价格的持续下降会促使人均实际卫生费用增长率也呈现下降趋势;卫生保健服务相对价格的下降可能会刺激人们卫生保健服务需求,提高实际人均卫生费用的增长率;⑶政府卫生投入比例的上升会导致实际人均卫生费用增长率增加,产生明显的正向效应。

Objective： To explore the short and long tern1 effects of relative price of goods of heahh care on health expenditures per capita. Methods： Based on macro time series data, through taking into account factot~ such as per capita GDP, government health input provided, auto-regressive distributed lag models （ARDL） and en＇or correction model （ECM） are established to analyze the effects. Results and Conclusions： （1） The effects of relative prices of health care goods on real health expenditure per capita are much greater than the relative price of t^ealth care services and the growth rate of government investment in health care. （2） Compared with other goods, the decreasing of relative prices of heahh care goods would promote the decreasing of real heahh expendition per capita; The decline in relative prices of health care services could stimulate the demand for health care services and increase the actual growth rate of per capita heahh expenditure. （3） Increasing in the proportion of government health input will cause an increase in real per capita heahh expenditure growth, which has a significant positive effect.