房地产限购政策的效果及其可持续性——基于北京商品住宅市场量价波动关系的实证研究

The Effect of the Restriction Policy and Its Sustainability:An Empirical Study Based on Volume-price Relationship in the Beijing Residential Market

本文以北京市为例,分析限购政策对城市商品住宅市场的交易价格所产生的影响,并进行格兰杰因果检验,以确定限购背景下商品住宅交易价格和数量之间所存在的因果关系,最后通过VAR模型和脉冲响应分析限购政策的持续性效果。结果显示,限购政策对城市商品住宅的交易量和交易价格均产生了影响,使得两者出现下降趋势,但变化的时间并不同步。交易量是价格的格兰杰原因,对价格产生同向的影响,但影响过程具有滞后性。面对一个单位交易量的冲击,价格会做出同方向较大幅度的变化,尔后趋于平稳,但交易量本身在后期有反方向变化的趋势,可能带动价格回升。这意味着随着限购政策的深入,其效果可能逐渐衰减:商品住宅成交量有可能回升,并带动价格恢复上涨态势。

This paper takes Beijing as an example. It analyzes the effect of the restriction policy on volume and price in cities＇ residential market. Then the Granger causality test shows the existence of causal relationship between volume and price under the restriction policy in the residential market. Finally, through the VAR model and impulse response analysis, this paper tests the sustainability of this policy. The results show that the restriction policy affects both volume and price of the urban commercial residential market, making them a declining trend. However, the change time is not synchronized. The volume is the Granger cause of the price and affects it in the same direction with a lag in the process. Faced with a shock of a unit change in volume, the price will change substantially in the same direction and then stabilize. However, the volume itself may make a change in the opposite direction later, which may drive the price to recover. This means that the effect of the restriction policy may gradually decay. As a result, commercial residential volume maybe recover and make the price a rising trend.