经济波动与保险业的非线性增长效应

Economy Fluctuation and Non-linear Growth Effect of Insurance Industry

保险业作为现代金融业的重要组成部分,可以通过转化储蓄而形成资本积累来促进经济增长,但保险业的增长效应是否会随经济波动程度的不同出现差异却较少被关注。本文采用相对保险深度作为保险业发展的代理变量,运用中国1999-2010年间30个省市的面板数据,采用面板数据门槛效应模型作为分析工具,选择与经济增长、金融发展关系紧密的经济波动指标作为门槛变量对保险业的增长效应进行了实证分析。结果显示:当考虑到保险业发展与经济增长的匹配程度时,大力发展保险业不再是最佳选择。在经济波动处于不同程度或区制时,保险业发展对经济增长的影响存在明显的门槛效应,即随着经济增长率或通货膨胀率跨越门槛值、进入一个更高的区制,相对保险深度对经济增长的影响有所减弱。

Insurance market activity,both as financial intermediary and as provider of risk transfer and indemnification,may promote economic growth by allowing different risks to be managed more efficiently encouraging the accumulation of new capital,and by mobilizing domestic savings into productive investments.Using panel data for 31 Chinese provinces through 1999-2010,this paper assesses the effect of insurance development on economic growth with threshold panel data model.The results show that insurance development can not always promote economic growth if we use relative insurance penetration as the proxy variable of insurance development,and that the impeding effect of relative insurance penetration will reduce with increase rate of GDP per capita and CPI reach the higher threshold.