我国经济短期波动对长期增长影响的不对称性研究——基于改进的GARCH-M模型

Study on the Asymmetric Influence of China's Economic Short-term Fluctuation on Long-term Growth——Based on the Improved GARCH-M Model

短期波动和长期增长关系历来是学术界争论的一个问题。基于新中国成立以来全国及分产业的经济增长数据,在考虑到不同阶段周期波动对长期增长影响不对称性的可能下,运用改进的GARCH-M模型研究了中国经济短期波动对长期增长的影响。结果表明:中国经济波动与经济增长的关系与所处的经济周期阶段有关,波动对增长的整体负面影响主要是由改革前严重的经济衰退造成,改革后适度的经济波动对增长有促进作用。由三次产业数据也得出了类似的结论。

The relationship between short - term fluctuation and long - term growth has long been a controversial question among scholars. Based on the economic growth data of China＇ s dif- ferent industries since 1949, and by tion in different stages on long- term taking the possible asymmetric influence of periodic fluctua- growth into consideration, the authors study the influence of China＇ s short - term fluctuation on long - term growth with an improved GRACH - M Model. Re- suits show that the relationship between China＇ s economic fluctuation and economic growth has relations with economic cycle. The general negative influence of fluctuation on economic growth is mainly caused by the serious economic recession before the reform, and appropriate economic fluctuation after the reform has promoted growth. Similar conclusions are made with data of three industries.