建筑业与房地产业发展的互动机理及效应仿真

Interaction Mechanism and the Simulation of its Effect between Construction Industry and Real Estate Industry

采用系统动力学原理和方法,从投入与产出角度提出了建筑业与房地产业发展的动力机制和动力模型。根据我国1992年至2007年建筑业、房地产业及宏观经济发展的历史数据,模拟和预测了我国建筑业、房地产业发展现状及发展趋势;改变建筑业投资,模拟并预测其对建筑业、房地产业的影响效应。设定金融危机对建筑业和房地产业的影响参数,模拟并预测其对建筑业和房地产业的影响程度;在此基础上,设定建筑业增加3万多亿投资的参数,模拟金融危机情形下增加建筑业投资对建筑业和房地产业的拉动效应。研究结果证明,建筑业与房地产业发展互动影响效应明显;在金融危机的情形下,对建筑业增加投资,能有效促进建筑业及房地产业等关联产业的持续增长,促进GDP的持续上涨。

Using system dynamics model, we study the interaction mechanism and dynamics between construction industry and real estate industry. With historical data of construction industry, real estate industry and macro-economy, the current situation and trends of construction industry and real estate industry were simulated with the system dynamics model. Computing the parameters of the system dynamics model on the situation of Financial Crisis in 2008, the effect of construction industry and real estate industry was simulated. And then, the pulling effect of construction industry and real estate industry by the countermeasure of ＂three trillion＂ investment plans was also simulated. The research results indicate that the interaction mechanism between construction industry and real estate industry obvious, and increasing investment plans was an effective method to expand domestic demand to promote economic growth of construction industry, real estate industry, and even other related industries.