中国农村空心化综合测度与分区

Comprehensive measure and partition of rural hollowing in China

随着城镇化进程加快,广大农村地区出现了以土地资源粗放利用、人口过疏化、经济发展动力不足为主要特征的农村空心化现象。论文基于农村土地利用、社会经济发展数据,采用子系统综合评价与层次逐级判断组合研究方法,综合评价了中国县域尺度的农村空心化程度,并进行了地域分区。研究表明:中国农村空心化地域分异特征明显,高值区集中于北方边境和东部沿海发达县域,两湖平原、中部传统农区空心化也较为突出;低值区集中在南疆地区、青藏高原、西南山区等落后山区。按照土地、人口、经济子系统的交互特征,可将全国划分为新疆经济平稳发展型空心化中低值区等10个农村空心化大区,以及北疆农村空心化出现区等47个亚区。研究结果可为有序、分区、分类推进中国农村空心化整治提供科学支撑。

In order to offer a scientific and reasonable recommendation for rural hollowing consolidation, the regional differences of rural hollowing should be researched in China. In this paper, the index system for evaluating rural hollowing degree was constructed with the data related to land use, socio-economic factors, natural elements in each county. The regional differences of rural hollowing and were examined by sub-systems analysis and sys- tem-level evaluation methods. The results were shown as follows. There are three domi- nant factors affecting rural hollowing, i. e. , the extensive degree of the rural residential land use, the effective transferring degree of population, and the economic development degree. The regional difference of rural hollowing was significant. High-value regions of rural hollowing were mainly found near northern borders and in eastern coastal counties of China. Meanwhile, the rural hollowing was more prominent in the area of Hunan and Hu- bei and traditional agricultural regions in Central China. Low rural hollowing is mainly found in south Xinjiang, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and mountainous regions of Southwest China, showing a pattern of spatial agglomeration. The rural hollowing areas are divided into 10 big regions and 47 sub-regions, including Xinjiang Region with low rural hollowing at stable economic development level, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Region with low rural hollo- wing at economic backward level, Huang-Huai-Hai Plain Region with moderate rural hol- lowing at stable economic development level. In the future, the rural hollowing counties will be renovated based on the theories on restructuring of industry, space and organiza- tion.