基于变权综合理论的天然气管道动态风险评价

Dynamic Risk Assessment for Natural Gas Pipelines Based on Variable Weights Comprehensive Theory

为对天然气管道进行有效的风险评估,提出基于变权综合理论的天然气管道动态风险评价法。利用故障树分析法(FTA)确定天然气管道不同时间空间下的主要风险因素,实时更新风险指标体系;同时引入变权综合原理,建立权重跟随指标值动态变化的变权赋值模型;然后对天然气管道进行综合评定,确定管道当前状态的风险程度。以陕京3线中某管段为例进行分析,得出该管段当前风险等级为中等,在后期运行中应被重点监控。变权赋值与动态指标体系的结合使该方法能实时反映管道风险状况,并适用于天然气管线各段。

To conduct effective risk assessment for the natural gas pipeline, a dynamic risk assessment method based on variable weights comprehensive theory was worked out. FTA was used to judge the main risk factors of gas pipeline in different condition in order that real-time updating of the risk index system can be realized. Meanwhile, variable weights comprehensive theory was introduced to build a variable weights model in which weights change with indexes. Then comprehensive evaluation for natural gas pipeline is conducted to know the pipeline＇s risk level. Risk assessment for a certain section of Shanjing 3 pipeline was carried out. The result shows that the section is at a medium risk level now and should be monitored intensively. The combination of variable weights and dynamic index system enables this method to reflect the risk level of pipe in real time and apply to all sections of pipeline.