政策诱导性产能过剩成因与对策研究

Investigation into the Reason and Solution of over Capacity Induced by Government Policies

新兴产业发展对我国经济转型有重要意义,但却时常出现国家鼓励扶持的产业,很快以产能严重过剩收场,形成"扶持—过剩—抑制"的怪圈。本文分析了政策失灵的成因,是国家层面被误导的决策失误被地方政府放大,对企业形成扭曲的激励机制,造成政策诱导性产能过剩。规避政策失灵,需要改善决策机制,包括智囊独立、证据支持、政策评估等。最后探讨了合意产业政策内容,提出重点要构建商务和服务网络、产业领域聚焦、改善商业环境等。

Emerging industries are important for economic transformation, But the industries supported by the government policies often show over capacity soon. This paper analysis the reasons, and point out that misadvised decision blow up by local governments form distorted motivation for firms, resulted in over capacity induced by government policies. To avoid it, the decision making mechanism need to be improved, including independent think tank, evidence support and policy appraise. Finally the paper proposes that the reasonable policy content need to build knowledge support network, focus on narrow industry area and improve business environment.