西藏居民消费影响因素的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Resident Consumption in Tibet

基于1994～2010年居民消费支出和城乡居民收入及结构、社会保障支出人均数据以及物价、利率的统计数据,对西藏居民消费与其影响因素进行了实证分析,结果表明,从长期来看,西藏城镇居民收入对消费的影响比农民收入作用大,城乡居民持久收入对消费起着决定性作用,社会保障对消费有很强的促进作用,物价的上升对消费有抑制作用,名义利率的变动对居民消费的影响具有不确定性。基于此,应该增加城乡居民特别是低收入群体的收入,扩大社会保障覆盖范围和提高社会保障水平,防止市场供应脱销断档、物价过快上涨,不断发展金融市场,从而促进西藏居民消费。

Based on the data of resident consumption expenditure and income,the structure,the social security expenditure,as well as prices and interest rates in Tibet from 1994 to 2010,this article empirically analyzes the relationship between the consumption of residents in Tibet and the influencing factors. The results show that the effect of urban resident income on consumption is larger than income of the farmers,the permanent income plays a decisive role on consumption,and the social security,the rise of prices and changes of the interest rates are important factors affecting the resident consumption in the long run. Based on these,we should increase the income of urban and rural residents,especially the low income groups,expand social security coverage and raise the level of social security,and develop the financial market in order to promote the resident consumption in Tibet.