消费方式城镇化与农村产业结构调整——基于1986～2010年数据的实证研究

Urbanization of Consumption Patterns and Rural Industrial Restructuring——based on the annual data from the year of 1986～2010

根据1986～2010年数据测算出我国生产、消费方式城镇化水平与农村产业结构调整水平,进而通过Granger因果检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解等方法实证研究两者的关系,结果表明:我国生产、消费方式城镇化与农村产业结构调整间存在双向的因果关系,并且两者相互促进,但相对而言,农村产业结构调整对生产、消费方式城镇化的促进作用更加明显。

Based on the annual data of 1986~2010, this paper estimated Chings urbanization level of pro- duction and consumption patterns and the rural industrial restructuring level. Through the methods of the Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, it concludes that： there is a two-way causal relationship between China^s urbanization of production and consumption and the rural industrial restructuring, and these two promote each other. However, comparatively speaking, the rural industrial restructuring plays more obvious and effective role in promoting the urbanization of production and consumption patterns.