北部湾经济区干旱灾害风险评价

Drought Risk Assessment of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone,China

利用信息扩散风险分析模型计算了北部湾经济区的水资源干旱风险率,结合Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、年内分配不均匀系数、集中程度等方法对北部湾经济区6市水资源干旱灾害风险的时空变化特征进行了综合评价。结果显示,①1953—2010年崇左市和防城港市干旱风险率呈上升趋势;南宁市、玉林市、北海市和钦州市干旱风险率呈下降趋势。②1980年以来,北部湾经济区的的干旱风险以上升为主。③南宁市、崇左市的多年平均干旱风险率比北部湾经济区其他城市大。④除了崇左市,其他5市降雨量年内分配不均匀性和集中程度均有上升趋势,会增加北部湾经济区的干旱风险。

Drought risk rates of water resources were calculated using the risk analysis model of information diffusion in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone.Combining with Mann-Kendall trend test method,inner-annual distribution uniformity coefficient and concentrate degree,we comprehensively evaluated temporal and spatial changing characteristics of the drought risk in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone.The results showed,①drought risk rates showed ascendant trend in Chongzuo and Fangchenggang during 1953—2010,while drought risk rates assumed the drop tendency in Nanning,Yulin,Beihai and Qinzhou;②the Beibu Gulf drought risk mainly had a upward trend since 1980;③ the average annual drought risk rates were larger in Nanning and Chongzuo than others;④except Chongzuo,inner-annual distribution uniformity coefficient and concentrate degree had rising tendency in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone,which can increase drought risk.