运用GM(1,1)定量研究公路项目的社会经济效益

Quantitative Research on Socioeconomic Benefit of Highway Projects by Using GM(1,1) Model

针对目前我国公路项目后评价中社会经济效益难以定量的问题,运用GM(1,1)模型对有、无公路项目的社会经济效益进行模拟预测,二者预测值之间的差值即可近似估计为公路建设所带来的社会经济效益;以渝合高速公路为例,对公路沿线区域的国内生产总值进行模拟预测,最终表明渝合高速公路的建设为沿线社会经济发展带来了明显的变化。

Because of difficult quantification on socioeconomic benefit in China’s highway project post evaluation,GM（1,1） Model is used to simulate and predicate socioeconomic benefit for an unit with a highway project or without a highway project,the difference of predicative values between the two can approximately estimate the socioeconomic benefit resulted from a highway project.Taking Yuhe Highway as an example,this paper simulates and predicates GDP of the units along the Highway and the results show that Yuhe Highway construction brings obvious change of socioeconomic development of the units along the Highway.