中国积极财政政策是否可持续

Is China's Fiscal policy Sustainable: An Empirical Research

本文简要回顾了财政可持续性(Fiscal Sustainability)相关研究文献,选择国际标准的计量经济学分析工具,选取适当模型对中国财政可持续性进行检验,并就不同情形下的财政可持续性所对应的赤字率进行模拟分析,具体分析了不同情境下通胀、经济增长、利息支付、铸币税等因素对可持续性财政赤字率的影响。综合分析后可以判断中国目前的财政状况基本属于可持续性状态,中国财政整体上仍处于健康状态,积极财政政策仍有作为的空间,但是对于地方政府债务等需要引起高度重视。最后,本文就财政政策调整提出合理的建议。

This paper briefly reviews the literature of fiscal sustainability and test China＇s fiscal sustainability using standard econometric analysis tools and appropriate model. It makes simulation analysis under different scenarios of inflation rate, economic growth rate, interest payment and seigniorage tax to analyze their impact on sustainable fiscal deficit rate. After a comprehensive analysis it reaches the conclusion that China＇s current fiscal situation is basically sustainable, Chings public finance as a whole is still in a healthy status, and expansionary fiscal policy is adoptable in recent years. However, debts of local governments should be paid more attention to. Finally it gives some reasonable suggestions of fiscal policy adjustment .