基于扩展乘数渠道的国库资金经济效应分析

Estimation of the Economic Effect of Treasury Fund——Based on Extensive Multiplier Channel

基于扩展的乘数渠道理论,本文运用协整方法分析了中国国库资金与货币供应、经济增长之间是否具有均衡关系,并构建SVAR模型研究中国国库资金对货币供应和经济增长的动态影响。结果表明:中国国库资金对货币供应量M1与经济增长之间具有均衡效应。国库资金的增加虽然会导致货币供应量减少,但在政府支出财政乘数效应不断形成的作用下,其仍然对中国经济增长具有一定的正向推动作用。鉴于货币政策对经济增长的效应比国库资金变动的综合效应更为强烈和持久,国库资金的业务操作必须考虑如何适度避免对货币政策形成干扰。

Based on extensive multiplier channel theory, this paper uses co-integration theory to analyses the equilibrium relationship between money supply and economic growth in the case of domestic treasury fund fluctuation, and builds SVAR model to study dynamic effect of domestic treasury fund on money supply and economic growth. The results show that, domestic treasury fund fluctuation, money supply and the economic growth have a long-time equilibrium relationship. Although the rise of domestic treasury fund leads to the decrease of money supply, it still has certain positive role in promoting economic growth under the multiplier effect of government expenditure. Because the effect of monetary policy on economic growth is stronger and more permanent than that of treasury fund, the operation of treasury fund should not disturb monetary policy in a certain degree.