上海住宅价格决策模型——基于因子及偏最小二乘回归分析

Decision Model for the Price of Shanghai's Residence Based on Factor and Partial Least-square Regression Analysis

本文运用基于因子分析和偏最小二乘回归分析两种方法对所选取的13个因素与上海住宅价格关系进行了研究。通过消除多重共线性问题,首次基于1990-2010年的统计数据,从供给和需求不同的角度建立了多变量下的上海住宅价格决策模型,全面反映了上海住宅价格波动的因素。研究结论表明:从长期来看,上海市住宅市场属于买方市场,即消费者主导了住宅价格的波动,但是需求弹性较小,即需求方在价格谈判中处于弱势地位。供给方面,投资总额对住宅价格的影响显著,住宅市场盲目投资严重。政府应继续加大宏观调控力度,使住宅市场更加合理高效,这样有助于上海保持人才优势,促进产业升级。

This paper studies the relations between 13 selection factors and the price of Shanghai＇ s residence based on factor and partial least-square regression analysis. By eliminating the multicollinearity between variables, we establish the multi-variable decision model for the price of Shanghai re the angles of market supply and demand based on 1990 -2010 statistical data, and this sidence from model fully reflects the price of Shanghai residence fluctuations. The results show that Shanghai residential market will be a buy＇s market in the tong run. That is to say, the consumers will take a lead in the house price, but they expose the weakness in the price negotiations because of the small demand elasticity. The total investment has significant effect on the residence price from the point of supply, and blind investment is fairly common problem. So the government should continually strengthen macro-control to make the residential market more rational and efficient, it will help Shanghai to keep intellectual advantage and boost industrial upgrade.